By Dr Zeyar Win
GLOBAL climate monitoring agencies warn that late 2026 to 2027 could bring a Strong El Niño or even a Super El Niño, a phenomenon that threatens to reshape weather patterns worldwide. For Myanmar, a country heavily dependent on monsoon rains, the prospect raises urgent concerns about heat, drought, agriculture, and public health.
El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific rise above normal, disrupting rainfall and wind circulation across continents. The name dates back to the 1600s, when Peruvian fishermen noticed warm currents around Christmas that reduced fish catches and triggered heavy rains. They called it El Niño, meaning “The Christ Child”.
By the late 19th century, scientists began studying the phenomenon systematically. In the 1920s, British physicist Sir Gilbert Walker identified the Southern Oscillation, a shift in air pressure between the eastern and western Pacific. Later, Norwegian-American meteorologist Jacob Bjerknes proved that ocean warming and pressure changes were linked, forming a global climate cycle now known as ENSO (El Niño – Southern Oscillation).
Myanmar’s reliance on monsoon rains makes it particularly exposed to El Niño’s impacts. Past events have brought record-breaking heat, delayed rainfall, and severe water shortages.
• 1997-1998 El Niño: One of the hottest and driest years in Myanmar’s history. River levels, including the Ayeyawady, dropped dramatically, crippling agriculture.
• 2015-2016 El Niño: Temperatures soared to 45-47°C in Ayeyawady, Magway, Mandalay, and Sagaing regions. Thousands of villages faced water scarcity.
• 2023-2024 El Niño: Coincided with a global record event, unleashing intense heat waves and worsening drought across the country.
These episodes highlight how climate change is intensifying El Niño, pushing temperatures to new extremes and straining rural communities.
If a Super El Niño develops, Myanmar could face:
• Extreme heat: Higher risk of heatstroke, especially among children and the elderly.
• Water shortages: Hydropower generation may falter as reservoirs dry, leading to nationwide electricity rationing.
• Agricultural losses: Reduced rainfall could lower yields of rice, beans, sesame, and other staples.
• Livestock stress: Animals may suffer from heat and lack of drinking water.
• Wildfires: Dry conditions increase forest fire risks, worsening air pollution and respiratory illness.
Health Risks on the Rise
Doctors warn that El Niño periods often trigger a surge in health problems:
• Heat-related illnesses such as dehydration, heat exhaustion, and heatstroke.
• Waterborne diseases like diarrhea and intestinal infections from unsafe water.
• Respiratory issues including asthma, lung disease, and eye irritation caused by smoke and dust from wildfires.
• Vector-borne diseases such as dengue, as mosquito breeding patterns shift with climate changes.
• Nutrition challenges as crop failures lead to food shortages and malnutrition, particularly among children and pregnant women.
• Mental health strains including stress, anxiety, and insomnia linked to extreme heat and hardship.
Preventive Measures
Health experts urge citizens to prepare:
• Drink plenty of clean water; boil before use.
• Avoid outdoor exposure between 11 am and 3 pm.
• Wear light, breathable clothing.
• Pay special attention to children and the elderly.
• Practice hygiene: handwashing, safe food preparation.
• Use masks in dusty or smoky areas.
• Eat balanced diets with vegetables, fruits, and protein-rich foods.
• Ensure adequate rest and seek family or community support.
• Follow climate warnings and prepare for natural disasters.
Public health specialists emphasize that prevention is key. Strengthening Myanmar’s health systems, ensuring early warning mechanisms, and promoting community awareness can reduce the toll of climate shocks. “Prevention is better than cure,” experts say, urging collective action to safeguard lives.
As the world braces for a possible Super El Niño, Myanmar must prepare for more than just hotter days. The risks span from crop failures to disease outbreaks and power shortages. Yet with foresight, resilience, and community cooperation, the nation can withstand the challenge.
The looming climate event is a reminder that health and environment are inseparable. Protecting citizens from heat, hunger, and disease will be as critical as managing rivers and reservoirs. In the face of global climate disruption, Myanmar’s path forward lies in preparedness, solidarity, and strong public health systems.
