MANY countries around the world are currently grappling with declining birth rates and overall population shrinkage. While a lower birth rate may seem beneficial for an overpopulated planet, it can lead to generational imbalances and long-term social and economic challenges.
In recent decades, there have been significant global shifts in fertility and life expectancy. In the early 1970s, the global fertility rate averaged 4.5 children per woman. By 2015, that number had dropped to below 2.5 children. At the same time, global life expectancy has steadily increased, from 64.6 years in the early 1990s to 72.6 years in 2019. Although increased lifespans are generally a positive development, they also mean that societies will face a growing elderly population that must be supported by a shrinking workforce.
The gradual decline in the number of children born per woman signals a larger population challenge ahead. With fewer children being born and people living longer, countries risk experiencing labour shortages while simultaneously seeing rising numbers of elderly citizens needing care.
Several factors contribute to falling birth rates. Among the most common are women choosing to marry later in life, increased living costs associated with raising children and maintaining a household, and a growing trend toward smaller families. Additionally, more people today express less interest in marriage and child-rearing than in past generations.
The COVID-19 pandemic also played a significant role in further reducing birth rates across the globe. Data from various countries reveal this trend: Spain experienced a 20 per cent decline in births, Italy saw a 22 per cent drop, and France reported a 13 per cent decrease. Similar patterns are evident in parts of Asia as well, where birth rates have steadily declined in recent years.
This shift has serious implications. A reduced number of children and a rising elderly population pose economic and demographic risks for any nation. With fewer working-age people to support retirees, the strain on public services and economic productivity is likely to increase. Over time, this imbalance could undermine national development and social stability.
So as to address this issue, governments of all countries must take proactive steps. Long-term planning, family-friendly policies, and targeted human resource development programs will be essential in preparing for the future. Encouraging stable population growth through sustainable and supportive measures can help countries avoid the potential negative impacts of a shrinking and ageing population.
