By U AC
THE scam centres along the Myanmar eastern borders were definitely one of the most newsworthy issues of 2025. But with the Myanmar government cleaning these up at rocket speed and EAOs caught between the devil and the deep blue sea, the supply of scams could become more decentralized over the next few years. Their operations have become more mobile and agile. The number of staff involved also became akin to terror cells, staffed with just a few people with lots of technologies and AI. The supply of scams might not drop, but it would definitely become more distributed, with scammers being stationed in various cities and towns within the poorer ASEAN countries.
Regardless of supply, the demand is on the side of the righteous. With more and more people becoming aware of scams of various kinds and major news networks doing investigative work along the Mae Sot-Myawady border, the chances of the general public getting conned are now significantly lower than they were a couple of years ago. Word of mouth is also contributing towards the fight against scams. Furthermore, how many times could you possibly scam one person? Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me! Or, that person has already run out of lifelong savings to be scammed upon. Hence, the demand for scams is undoubtedly going south as we write this, and eventually, it will not occupy the top spot in crime charts even as the scammers devise new ways to dupe people using technology and AI.
So, the crimes of swindling will dwindle as we straddle a quarter of this century.
It’s great news for everyone, then, isn’t it?
Based on our forecast of the times ahead, there might be more serious issues brewing around the corner.
The reasoning is simple… Even though the scam centres are nearly gone, the governance and law and order misalignment in the border areas has not been addressed at all. These regions, Wa, Koh Kant, some parts of Shan, Kayin, Kachin, Chin, Nagaland, are totally not under the control of the Myanmar government or military (Tatmadaw). The EAOs operating there are more interested in enriching themselves whichever way possible, rather than building infrastructure for the inhabitants of the land. The drug lords, crime lords, warlords, etc., are still thriving over there by currying favours with the barbarian leaders of EAOs. Hence, the ecosystem is so oriented towards these regions to become the epicentre of the next tsunami of global transgression.
Drugs are openly sold along the streets of Phakant in Kachin State. Average youths in the city of Mogok, near northern Shan, are addicted to one kind of drug or another. The border town of Tachilek, being the major town in the Golden Triangle, is also flooded with drugs of various kinds that the residents there could not even address the defences against the regularity of major floods that inundate the ground floors of almost all houses in the city (happened 3x this year alone). In another checkpoint city of Myawaddy, clashes between Tatmadaw and EAOs or between EAOs have become so common that people are only interested in making quick money, i.e., via engaging in an abundance of vice. Further down south along the Three Pagoda pass, the sole trade across the border seems to be in synthetic drugs. We do not know which way the drugs are heading from there, but stats actually reveal some trends.
Even in cities such as Maw La Myine, the capital of Mon State, the only profitable businesses to do seem to be synthetic drugs, gambling and smuggling of various stuff, including human beings. We personally heard the direct account from the youth and businessmen over there, who would regularly go to ‘Hi’ rooms once a week at least, as long as they got money in their pockets.
Out of our motherland, the latest statistics in Malaysia show a 32.5 per cent increase in reported drug users and addicts from 2023 to 2024. Its DPM said, “Drug abuse in Malaysia has reached a ‹critical level’ and threatens public safety, economic stability, and social structures”. Australia has reported A$450 million more drug seizures in 2024 compared to the previous year. Thailand also reported a nearly 50 per cent increase in drug-related cases in 2024.
In Myanmar, too, the value of drug seizures has gone up significantly. Gone were the days when the carriers were caught with a hundred thousand dollars or so worth of drugs. Recent synthetic drug seizures were each in excess of $1million for each capture.
In its 2024 Annual Report, the International Narcotics Control Board finds that,
Illicit synthetic drugs are spreading, and consumption is increasing.
More coordinated action by Governments and others is needed to tackle the problem.
Synthetic drugs could overtake some plant-based drugs in the near future.
The total and individual value of drug busts have gone up, even though the costs of production of synthetic drugs have gone down, which undoubtedly leads to the conclusion that the volume of drugs shipped or transported must have gone up exponentially.
Synthetic drugs are easily manufactured with little technical or scientific knowledge, and there is a reduced need for labour or land for cultivation, unlike for plant-based drugs such as Cocaine or Heroin. The manufacturing station can be located anywhere, and the same equipment can be used for different synthetic outputs. Traffickers can shift manufacturing, movement and marketing tactics to keep operating costs down and profit margins up, as well as to reduce risks of interdiction.
As synthetic drugs are more potent (some even inducing zombie-like conditions), traffickers can send smaller consignments, which are easier to conceal and sometimes use drones and other new trafficking techniques. Although global demand for plant-based drugs is still higher than the current supply of synthetic drugs, seizures of synthetic substances have already begun to outpace seizures of some plant-based drugs.
Along the border regions of Myanmar, as long as the EAOs turned a blind eye, every household compound or basement could be a synthetic drug lab, churning out thousands of tablets per day. And if they can turn a blind eye to the scams that cheat the poor and gullible without an ounce of conscience, why would they bother interfering when they are producing and exporting some drugs! After all, they have been one of the world’s top exporters of Heroin before.
I have personally spoken to one prominent business person from Kengtung in eastern Shan. He said the largest factories that supply the world with synthetics were located around the centre of Shan State, under the control of the Wa and Shan State Armies. The individual labs of ‘aspiring’ entrepreneurs are in empty land plots just on the outskirts of major towns and cities in these self-administered regions.
The difference between synthetics and scams is such that the latter is not additive. The demand for scams is diminishing while the demand for synthetics is growing exponentially, as the supply has exploded and prices have dropped. Combined with the addiction factor, we are looking at a worldwide disaster within a relatively short number of years.
Just like scam centres, lack of jurisdiction alignment would come into play, resulting in years of inaction, blame game and finger pointing, while the world youth succumbs to the synthetic enslavement and loss of productivity and economic output.
We need to start working together now; ASEAN, RCEP, Interpol, INCB, etc., to ensure that the problem is nib in the bud. We don’t want another deja vu cataclysm like the scam centres, do we??
